Nine more North Korean refugees arrived in the U.S. in June, bringing the total since the North Korean Human Rights Act was legislated in 2004 to a total of 91, Voice of America reported.
VOA reported quoted data on refugees released recently by the U.S. State Department. While there has been a “lull”, to state the least, in the number of arrivals of North Korean refugees in the U.S., another 14 did arrive in April.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il reportedly has pancreatic cancer and the illness is life-threatening, South Korean broadcaster YTN said on Monday based on information gathered by Chinese and South Korean intelligence sources. Along with his stroke last August, all this raises questions about the longevity of the regime in Pyongyang.
Following are scenarios Reuters puts forth:
1. SMOOTH TRANSITION
The longer Kim lives and remains in reasonable health, the greater the chance of a smooth transition of power to his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, 25. Kim junior is also believed to have the backing of Jang Song-taek, effectively the country's number 2 leader.
2. MESSY TRANSITION
The early death or incapacitation of Kim would complicate the transition. Given his youth, inexperience and the fact few North Koreans even know of his existence, it is hard to see Jong-un taking over in the near future. That puts the onus on the elite to manage the transition. North Korea could become even more bellicose to build internal support.
3. MILITARY TAKES OVER
The sudden death of Kim Jong-il could prompt a military coup. The Council on Foreign Relations said a military coup was possible. A coup would be bearish for financial markets given that the military is seen as a prime backer of recent belligerence.
4. COLLAPSE OF THE STATE
Economic disintegration or a protracted leadership crisis could lead to North Korea's collapse, sending millions across the border into the wealthy and more populous South or across the more open northern border with China. For South Korea, this would wreck its economy and create social upheaval. South Korean estimates have said it would cost $1 trillion or more to absorb the North. Financial markets in Seoul would plunge given how expensive and messy such a transition could be.
South Korea said Friday it had identified and blocked five IP addresses used to distribute computer viruses that caused a wave of Web site outages in the U.S. and South Korea.
South Korean and American officials have said they believe North Korea was behind the attacks, but none of the blocked Internet Protocol addresses were for computers in North Korea. They were in Austria, Georgia, Germany, South Korea and the U.S., an official from the state-run Korea Communications Commission said. (The official added that South Korea also blocked another 86 IP addresses in 16 countries that were used to spread different viruses that damaged hard disks or files in computers they contaminated.)
The latest evidence does not clear North Korea of involvement. It is likely that the hackers used the identified IP addresses to cover themselves, accessing the computers from a remote location.
U.S. officials have said some IP addresses have been traced to the North. The Yonhap news agency, citing an unnamed participant, said the spy agency told lawmakers that it suspects a technology research unit under the general staff of the North's military is behind the cyber assaults. (The NIS declined to confirm the report.) The Chosun Ilbo reported Friday the North has between 500-1,000 hacking specialists.
